MONEY MATCH
#1593
$5 Ticket
Active
Fair
Health: 44
68.1%
Return to Player
84%
Maturity
1/4
Top Prizes Left
1 in 18
Current Odds
16,336,800
Total Tickets
13,696,765 (83.8%)
Tickets Sold
10%
Depletion Rate
10%
Jackpot 30d
68.1%
Implied RTP
AI Game Summary
Oct 14, 2026
MONEY MATCH offers a 68.1% expected value with fair health score, indicating above-average odds for a $5 ticket. Top prizes are scarce, with only 1 of 4 remaining, and the game is 83.8% sold through. The optimal buy window is currently closed as maturity is near.
Confidence: Low
(data as of 2026-10-13; maturity nearing)
Tickets Status
16,336,800 total
Prize Distribution
13 tiers
RTP History (Last 91 Days)
Current: 68.1%
Prize Tier Details
View Predictions
| Prize | Odds | Total | Remaining | Claimed | Progress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,000,000 | 1 in 4,084,335 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
|
| $10,000 | 1 in 907,630 | 18 | 2 | 16 |
|
| $2,000 | 1 in 24,132 | 677 | 92 | 585 |
|
| $1,000 | 1 in 10,784 | 1,515 | 194 | 1,321 |
|
| $500 | 1 in 5,015 | 3,258 | 416 | 2,842 |
|
| $150 | 1 in 4,117 | 3,968 | 505 | 3,463 |
|
| $100 | 1 in 207 | 79,045 | 10,286 | 68,759 |
|
| $50 | 1 in 250 | 65,343 | 8,464 | 56,879 |
|
| $40 | 1 in 192 | 84,984 | 11,427 | 73,557 |
|
| $25 | 1 in 123 | 132,678 | 17,944 | 114,734 |
|
| $20 | 1 in 60 | 272,289 | 37,431 | 234,858 |
|
| $10 | 1 in 10 | 1,688,159 | 242,491 | 1,445,668 |
|
| $5 | 1 in 9 | 1,906,187 | 355,630 | 1,550,557 |
|
Game Rules (FL Emergency Rules)
| Total Tickets | 16,336,800 |
| Launch Odds | 1 in 3.00 |
| Effective Date | Apr 7, 2025 |
Recommendations
Compliance Alert
Implied RTP 68.1% < 70% — near retirement
Optimal Buy Window:
41.5% - 85.6% sell-through
(best time to purchase)
Advanced Analysis
Bulk Ticket Odds Calculator
Monte Carlo Simulation
Why This Score?
The most influential factor is ev (value: 0.6811), which positively contributes 68.1 points. The second driver is implied_rtp (contribution: 14.5). Analysis is based on a $5 ticket price.
| Factor | Current Value | Contribution | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ev | 0.681 | +68.1 | Expected value per dollar: primary driver of value-player score |
| Implied Rtp | 0.681 | +14.5 | Implied return-to-player relative to 50 % breakeven |
| Health Score | 43.800 | +13.1 | Composite game health (EV trend, depletion, prize quality) |
| Jackpot Prob 30d | 0.100 | +5.0 | 30-day probability that at least one jackpot prize is claimed |
| Maturity Stage | 0.838 | +3.2 | Lifecycle position: early-stage scratch_games score higher for value strategy |
| Prize Quality | 2.630 | +0.5 | Weighted quality of remaining prize tiers |
| Overdue Jackpot | 0.000 | +0.0 | Statistical overdue-jackpot signal (expected − actual claims) |
vs. $5 Price Bucket
0.746
Bucket Avg First-Claim ST
0.838
This Game's Maturity
0.42 σ
typical for bucket
Z-Score vs Bucket
Q1: 0.654
Median: 0.854
Q3: 0.921
Skew: -1.34
Model Prediction Confidence Intervals
| Model | Predicted | 95% CI Lower | 95% CI Upper | Margin (±) | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 2.0 | -75.2 | 79.2 | ±77.2 | 200 |
| Sharpe | 25.0 | -14.8 | 64.8 | ±39.8 | 200 |
| Bayesian | 14.0 | -28.4 | 56.4 | ±42.4 | 200 |
| Markov | 0.0 | -99.9 | 99.9 | ±99.9 | 200 |
| Ev | 36.2 | -20.8 | 93.3 | ±57.0 | 200 |