LOTERIA
#1616
$3 Ticket
Active
Good
Health: 58
67.9%
Return to Player
49%
Maturity
4/9
Top Prizes Left
1 in 6
Current Odds
27,019,800
Total Tickets
6,282,051 (23.2%)
Tickets Sold
20%
Depletion Rate
40%
Jackpot 30d
102%
Implied RTP
AI Game Summary
Oct 14, 2026
The LOTERIA $3 ticket has an average expected value of 68% and fair health score, with top prizes reduced to 4 of 9 remaining. Peer rank is #1 among $3 tickets by health score.
Confidence: Medium
(data as of 2026-10-13, 48.8% sold through)
Tickets Status
27,019,800 total
Prize Distribution
16 tiers
RTP History (Last 90 Days)
Current: 67.9%
Prize Tier Details
View Predictions
| Prize | Odds | Total | Remaining | Claimed | Progress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150,000 | 1 in 4,503,433 | 9 | 4 | 5 |
|
| $10,000 | 1 in 1,351,030 | 30 | 14 | 16 |
|
| $500 | 1 in 8,251 | 4,916 | 2,409 | 2,507 |
|
| $250 | 1 in 9,007 | 4,512 | 2,182 | 2,330 |
|
| $200 | 1 in 6,018 | 6,728 | 3,265 | 3,463 |
|
| $150 | 1 in 5,172 | 7,832 | 3,858 | 3,974 |
|
| $100 | 1 in 2,243 | 18,046 | 8,764 | 9,282 |
|
| $50 | 1 in 1,894 | 21,394 | 10,384 | 11,010 |
|
| $40 | 1 in 1,289 | 31,452 | 15,566 | 15,886 |
|
| $30 | 1 in 949 | 42,738 | 20,859 | 21,879 |
|
| $25 | 1 in 100 | 405,253 | 198,124 | 207,129 |
|
| $20 | 1 in 83 | 486,437 | 240,345 | 246,092 |
|
| $15 | 1 in 63 | 648,388 | 323,702 | 324,686 |
|
| $10 | 1 in 25 | 1,620,555 | 808,445 | 812,110 |
|
| $5 | 1 in 17 | 2,432,311 | 1,247,271 | 1,185,040 |
|
| $3 | 1 in 9 | 4,456,947 | 2,322,588 | 2,134,359 |
|
Game Rules (FL Emergency Rules)
| Total Tickets | 27,019,800 |
| Launch Odds | 1 in 3.00 |
| Effective Date | Dec 8, 2025 |
Recommendations
Optimal Buy Window:
40.9% - 79.2% sell-through
(best time to purchase)
Advanced Analysis
Bulk Ticket Odds Calculator
Monte Carlo Simulation
Why This Score?
The most influential factor is ev (value: 0.6794), which positively contributes 67.9 points. The second driver is implied_rtp (contribution: 41.6). Analysis is based on a $3 ticket price.
| Factor | Current Value | Contribution | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ev | 0.679 | +67.9 | Expected value per dollar: primary driver of value-player score |
| Implied Rtp | 1.020 | +41.6 | Implied return-to-player relative to 50 % breakeven |
| Jackpot Prob 30d | 0.400 | +20.0 | 30-day probability that at least one jackpot prize is claimed |
| Health Score | 58.400 | +17.5 | Composite game health (EV trend, depletion, prize quality) |
| Maturity Stage | 0.489 | +10.2 | Lifecycle position: early-stage scratch_games score higher for value strategy |
| Prize Quality | 2.710 | +0.5 | Weighted quality of remaining prize tiers |
| Overdue Jackpot | 0.000 | +0.0 | Statistical overdue-jackpot signal (expected − actual claims) |
vs. $3 Price Bucket
0.697
Bucket Avg First-Claim ST
0.489
This Game's Maturity
-1.08 σ
early vs bucket
Z-Score vs Bucket
Q1: 0.652
Median: 0.784
Q3: 0.840
Skew: -1.10
Model Prediction Confidence Intervals
| Model | Predicted | 95% CI Lower | 95% CI Upper | Margin (±) | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 21.0 | -56.2 | 98.2 | ±77.2 | 200 |
| Sharpe | 72.0 | 32.2 | 111.8 | ±39.8 | 200 |
| Bayesian | 56.0 | 13.6 | 98.4 | ±42.4 | 200 |
| Markov | 0.0 | -99.9 | 99.9 | ±99.9 | 200 |
| Ev | 100.0 | 43.0 | 157.0 | ±57.0 | 200 |