$1,000,000 HOLIDAY CA$H
#1613
$20 Ticket
Active
Fair
Health: 50
76.4%
Return to Player
77%
Maturity
1/4
Top Prizes Left
1 in 8
Current Odds
8,521,200
Total Tickets
6,566,509 (77.1%)
Tickets Sold
10%
Depletion Rate
10%
Jackpot 30d
76.4%
Implied RTP
AI Game Summary
Oct 14, 2026
$1,000,000 HOLIDAY CA$H offers below-average EV at 76.4% of ticket price and fair health score. Top prizes are scarce with only 1 of 4 remaining. Optimal buy window closed; consider similar hidden gems instead.
Confidence: Low
(maturity at 77% sold through, minimal hidden gems)
Tickets Status
8,521,200 total
Prize Distribution
14 tiers
RTP History (Last 91 Days)
Current: 76.4%
Prize Tier Details
View Predictions
| Prize | Odds | Total | Remaining | Claimed | Progress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,000,000 | 1 in 2,130,188 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
|
| $100,000 | 1 in 532,547 | 16 | 5 | 11 |
|
| $20,000 | 1 in 236,688 | 36 | 10 | 26 |
|
| $10,000 | 1 in 152,156 | 56 | 11 | 45 |
|
| $5,000 | 1 in 60,863 | 140 | 34 | 106 |
|
| $1,000 | 1 in 15,108 | 564 | 130 | 434 |
|
| $500 | 1 in 315 | 27,031 | 5,907 | 21,124 |
|
| $200 | 1 in 300 | 28,392 | 6,251 | 22,141 |
|
| $100 | 1 in 30 | 284,157 | 62,346 | 221,811 |
|
| $50 | 1 in 30 | 284,087 | 64,419 | 219,668 |
|
| $40 | 1 in 30 | 283,982 | 64,906 | 219,076 |
|
| $30 | 1 in 30 | 283,845 | 65,245 | 218,600 |
|
| $25 | 1 in 30 | 284,186 | 64,996 | 219,190 |
|
| $20 | 1 in 5 | 1,704,131 | 395,348 | 1,308,783 |
|
Game Rules (FL Emergency Rules)
| Total Tickets | 8,521,200 |
| Launch Odds | 1 in 2.00 |
| Effective Date | Oct 27, 2025 |
Recommendations
Compliance Alert
High-value ($20) game in wind-down (77.1% sold)
Optimal Buy Window:
46.1% - 77.8% sell-through
(best time to purchase)
Advanced Analysis
Bulk Ticket Odds Calculator
Monte Carlo Simulation
Why This Score?
The most influential factor is ev (value: 0.7637), which positively contributes 76.4 points. The second driver is implied_rtp (contribution: 21.1). Analysis is based on a $20 ticket price.
| Factor | Current Value | Contribution | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ev | 0.764 | +76.4 | Expected value per dollar: primary driver of value-player score |
| Implied Rtp | 0.764 | +21.1 | Implied return-to-player relative to 50 % breakeven |
| Health Score | 50.200 | +15.1 | Composite game health (EV trend, depletion, prize quality) |
| Jackpot Prob 30d | 0.100 | +5.0 | 30-day probability that at least one jackpot prize is claimed |
| Maturity Stage | 0.771 | +4.6 | Lifecycle position: early-stage scratch_games score higher for value strategy |
| Prize Quality | 2.050 | +0.4 | Weighted quality of remaining prize tiers |
| Overdue Jackpot | 0.000 | +0.0 | Statistical overdue-jackpot signal (expected − actual claims) |
vs. $20 Price Bucket
0.699
Bucket Avg First-Claim ST
0.771
This Game's Maturity
0.45 σ
typical for bucket
Z-Score vs Bucket
Q1: 0.630
Median: 0.705
Q3: 0.804
Skew: -0.31
Model Prediction Confidence Intervals
| Model | Predicted | 95% CI Lower | 95% CI Upper | Margin (±) | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 3.0 | -74.2 | 80.2 | ±77.2 | 200 |
| Sharpe | 52.0 | 12.2 | 91.8 | ±39.8 | 200 |
| Bayesian | 28.0 | -14.4 | 70.4 | ±42.4 | 200 |
| Markov | 0.0 | -99.9 | 99.9 | ±99.9 | 200 |
| Ev | 52.7 | -4.3 | 109.8 | ±57.0 | 200 |