GUY HARVEY $1M FLORIDA BIG BILLS
#1596
$5 Ticket
Active
Fair
Health: 44
79%
Return to Player
93%
Maturity
1/3
Top Prizes Left
1 in 41
Current Odds
14,227,200
Total Tickets
13,187,991 (92.7%)
Tickets Sold
40%
Depletion Rate
10%
Jackpot 30d
79%
Implied RTP
AI Game Summary
Oct 14, 2026
GUY HARVEY $1M FLORIDA BIG BILLS offers an above-average expected value of 78.9%, but the health score is poor at 43.8/100. With only 1 of 3 top prizes remaining, the implied RTP is exceptionally high at 7893%. The optimal buy window is closed.
Confidence: Low
(only 3 days of snapshot history)
Tickets Status
14,227,200 total
Prize Distribution
13 tiers
RTP History (Last 91 Days)
Current: 79%
Prize Tier Details
View Predictions
| Prize | Odds | Total | Remaining | Claimed | Progress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,000,000 | 1 in 4,742,520 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
|
| $10,000 | 1 in 444,611 | 32 | 1 | 31 |
|
| $5,000 | 1 in 142,276 | 100 | 6 | 94 |
|
| $1,000 | 1 in 17,183 | 828 | 58 | 770 |
|
| $500 | 1 in 1,485 | 9,578 | 495 | 9,083 |
|
| $100 | 1 in 240 | 59,292 | 3,224 | 56,068 |
|
| $50 | 1 in 231 | 61,669 | 3,577 | 58,092 |
|
| $30 | 1 in 240 | 59,366 | 3,394 | 55,972 |
|
| $25 | 1 in 241 | 59,153 | 3,447 | 55,706 |
|
| $20 | 1 in 60 | 237,126 | 14,569 | 222,557 |
|
| $15 | 1 in 60 | 237,126 | 14,811 | 222,315 |
|
| $10 | 1 in 10 | 1,422,570 | 93,753 | 1,328,817 |
|
| $5 | 1 in 10 | 1,422,904 | 123,412 | 1,299,492 |
|
Game Rules (FL Emergency Rules)
| Total Tickets | 14,227,200 |
| Launch Odds | 1 in 3.00 |
| Effective Date | May 19, 2025 |
Recommendations
Optimal Buy Window:
41.5% - 85.6% sell-through
(best time to purchase)
Advanced Analysis
Bulk Ticket Odds Calculator
Monte Carlo Simulation
Why This Score?
The most influential factor is ev (value: 0.7896), which positively contributes 79.0 points. The second driver is implied_rtp (contribution: 23.2). Analysis is based on a $5 ticket price.
| Factor | Current Value | Contribution | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ev | 0.790 | +79.0 | Expected value per dollar: primary driver of value-player score |
| Implied Rtp | 0.790 | +23.2 | Implied return-to-player relative to 50 % breakeven |
| Health Score | 43.800 | +13.1 | Composite game health (EV trend, depletion, prize quality) |
| Jackpot Prob 30d | 0.100 | +5.0 | 30-day probability that at least one jackpot prize is claimed |
| Maturity Stage | 0.927 | +1.5 | Lifecycle position: early-stage scratch_games score higher for value strategy |
| Prize Quality | 3.150 | +0.6 | Weighted quality of remaining prize tiers |
| Overdue Jackpot | 0.000 | +0.0 | Statistical overdue-jackpot signal (expected − actual claims) |
vs. $5 Price Bucket
0.746
Bucket Avg First-Claim ST
0.927
This Game's Maturity
0.82 σ
typical for bucket
Z-Score vs Bucket
Q1: 0.654
Median: 0.854
Q3: 0.921
Skew: -1.34
Model Prediction Confidence Intervals
| Model | Predicted | 95% CI Lower | 95% CI Upper | Margin (±) | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 3.0 | -74.2 | 80.2 | ±77.2 | 200 |
| Sharpe | 40.0 | 0.2 | 79.8 | ±39.8 | 200 |
| Bayesian | 22.0 | -20.4 | 64.4 | ±42.4 | 200 |
| Markov | 0.0 | -99.9 | 99.9 | ±99.9 | 200 |
| Ev | 57.9 | 0.9 | 115.0 | ±57.0 | 200 |